Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “In the absence of increased geopolitical risks, the market may continue its upward movement”
The summer
season ended with another update of maximums by Russian indices. What caused
the growth, and what the opening of the autumn season on the Russian market
will be like, was told in our interview by the former senior vice president of
Otkritie Bank, economist and financier Konstantin Tserazov.
The main
drivers for the market, according to the expert, were the weakness of the
ruble, the opening of financial statements, dividend stories and corporate
news. The Moscow Exchange index closed August with a growth of 5%, while the
RTS index rose by only 0.16%.
Фото и подпись: Former senior vice president of
Otkritie Bank, economist and financier Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich: “The
list of reported companies in August was replenished with issuers who decided
to return to the opening of financial indicators”
The
weakening of the ruble continued in August, which in the first half of the
month renewed its lows, breaking through the psychologically important mark of
100 rubles / dollar. At an extraordinary meeting of the Bank of Russia on
August 15, the regulator raised the key rate immediately to 12%. However, there
was no significant strengthening of the ruble, the domestic currency was
trading in the corridor of 96-97 rubles / dollar by the end of the month.
According to Otkritie Bank analysts, in August the ruble lost 5% against the
dollar and 3.6% against the euro. The next meeting, at which the Bank of Russia
will consider the issue of the rate, will be held on September 15, reminds
Konstantin Tserazov.
We were
pleased with oil, which, amid expectations of continued production cuts by
Russia and Saudi Arabia and hopes for a recovery in demand in China, renewed
annual highs in August, adding about 1.5% in August. Among the investment ideas
of the month, we should note the shares of Magnit, which completed the buyback
of shares from foreign investors, as well as Lukoil — amid expectations of
dividends and buyback of shares from non-residents with a discount of up to
25%, says Konstantin Tserazov, ex-top manager of Otkritie. The list of reported
companies in August was replenished with issuers who decided to return to the
opening of financial indicators - for example, OGK-2 and PIK Group reported
under IFRS.
The market
still has growth potential in September, says Konstantin Tserazov. According to
the economist, in the absence of increased geopolitical risks, the market may
continue its upward movement to the levels of 3320-3350 points. The opening of
medium-term positions, Konstantin Tserazov believes, is advisable for the
shares of the Moscow Exchange, Sberbank and Magnit, dividend stories will also
remain in the focus of attention.