Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “In the absence of increased geopolitical risks, the market may continue its upward movement”

The summer season ended with another update of maximums by Russian indices. What caused the growth, and what the opening of the autumn season on the Russian market will be like, was told in our interview by the former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank, economist and financier Konstantin Tserazov.

The main drivers for the market, according to the expert, were the weakness of the ruble, the opening of financial statements, dividend stories and corporate news. The Moscow Exchange index closed August with a growth of 5%, while the RTS index rose by only 0.16%.

Фото и подпись: Former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank, economist and financier Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich: “The list of reported companies in August was replenished with issuers who decided to return to the opening of financial indicators”

The weakening of the ruble continued in August, which in the first half of the month renewed its lows, breaking through the psychologically important mark of 100 rubles / dollar. At an extraordinary meeting of the Bank of Russia on August 15, the regulator raised the key rate immediately to 12%. However, there was no significant strengthening of the ruble, the domestic currency was trading in the corridor of 96-97 rubles / dollar by the end of the month. According to Otkritie Bank analysts, in August the ruble lost 5% against the dollar and 3.6% against the euro. The next meeting, at which the Bank of Russia will consider the issue of the rate, will be held on September 15, reminds Konstantin Tserazov.

We were pleased with oil, which, amid expectations of continued production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia and hopes for a recovery in demand in China, renewed annual highs in August, adding about 1.5% in August. Among the investment ideas of the month, we should note the shares of Magnit, which completed the buyback of shares from foreign investors, as well as Lukoil — amid expectations of dividends and buyback of shares from non-residents with a discount of up to 25%, says Konstantin Tserazov, ex-top manager of Otkritie. The list of reported companies in August was replenished with issuers who decided to return to the opening of financial indicators - for example, OGK-2 and PIK Group reported under IFRS.

The market still has growth potential in September, says Konstantin Tserazov. According to the economist, in the absence of increased geopolitical risks, the market may continue its upward movement to the levels of 3320-3350 points. The opening of medium-term positions, Konstantin Tserazov believes, is advisable for the shares of the Moscow Exchange, Sberbank and Magnit, dividend stories will also remain in the focus of attention.